NEW DELHI: The unanimous forecast of a BJP landslide in Gujarat has made it imperative for Congress to win Himachal Pradesh, lest a washout is seen as evidence of anti-UPA sentiment across the country.
Assembly elections in the two states were never seen by experts as a real contest, with Gujarat put in the saffron column much before the votes were cast. The reports of BJP rebel Keshubhai Patel denting Narendra Modi in Saurashtra raised prospects of Modi coming down from the 2007 tally but without any chance for Congress.
However, the exit poll findings of BJP sweeping Gujarat with a higher tally have raised the stakes for Congress to show electoral parity with a strong victory in Himachal.
A washout will inevitably be seen as evidence of general unrest against the Centre while defeat in just Gujarat can be reasoned on the state being a "special case".
Experts would see UPA's unpopularity over price rise, corruption and malgovernance as the common thread to Congress defeat in the northern hill state and a western state. The verdict could hurt the Centre since PM Manmohan Singh has just kick-started reforms to try and wrest back the initiative.
The perception of an anti-UPA sentiment could be debilitating for Congress. The ruling party has been looking to regain the upper hand with allies and dispel the notion that 2014 could be the time for regional parties, a view that weakens its bargaining power. Congress's strong show in 2009 had made it a one-way street.
A section of Congressmen are bound to seize on the setback to seek a pushback against reforms that the PM views as indispensable for the economy. The subsidy cap on LPG may emerge a big villain if the party suffers a setback in Himachal. There is already a clamour that the cap on subsidized cylinders be raised not just to nine but 12.
However, the biggest worry could be the leadership issue. Congress has already pitchforked Rahul Gandhi to leadership position and said he would lead the party campaign in 2014. It would normally push him as prime ministerial candidate of the secular alliance.
Cong needs Himachal win to stall anti-UPA slide
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Cong needs Himachal win to stall anti-UPA slide
